From the monetary opinion the year 1939 may be divided absolutely into two periods. The first, extending from the opening of the year until early summer, marked a steady decline in most phases of the nation's business activities. The second, beginning in the early summer, marked a reversal in the trend, a reversal undoubtedly speeded by the beginning of the European war early in September. (Bendersky, Joseph W.;)
By the year's end certain lines of business activity were approaching all time records. Gauged by Barron's Index (reflecting distribution and building activity as well as industrial operations) business in the aggregate in the last week in November stood at 88.2 relative to an estimated normal. This compares with the year's high up to that time of 88.4, the highest level since August 1937. Of the various aspects of the economic scene, industrial production was the most encouraging. Using the years 1923-1925 as 100, the indices of Barron's, the Federal Reserve Board and other organizations show production at 10 per cent or more above those years. The combined business index of the New York Times, for example, was 115.6 for the week. Increases were particularly evident in the output of iron and steel, flour, sugar, meat products, petroleum and electrical power. Flour production rose in October to near record levels and at meat-packing establishments activity was at the highest in several years. at the same time as increases were evident in almost all lines, they were not so spectacular as in those named. The whole movement of industrial production upward was symbolized in the manufacture of steel. Operations in that industry, which in early December reached 95 per cent of capacity, were at record high on the basis of actual output. Though new business in steel was leveling off at the end of the year, there was every expectation of continued high production................
