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Essay on Population Structure Of China
Until relatively recently in human history, societies desired high birth rates as they were needed to offset high death rates.
The growth of the world's population from 1700 through to the year 2100 is portrayed in Figure 22-4 (p. 549).
A critical point in world population growth occurred in about 1750 as the earth's population turned upward. In the 20th century alone the world's population has increased fourfold. Late in 1999 there were more than 6 billion people on earth. Around 1800 the world population reached 1 billion, in 1930 it reached 2 billion, in 1962 it reached 3 billion, in 1974 it reached 4 billion, and in 1987, 5 billion. By 2050 the world's population is projected to reach 8 to 9 billion.
In the late 18th century Thomas Malthus developed a theory of population growth in which he warned of disaster. He predicted population would increase according to a geometric progression, while food production would only increase in arithmetic progression.
Birth control he felt was immoral and abstinence unlikely.
For several reasons his projections have not been realized. First, the birth rate in Europe began to drop in the 19th century as children became less of an economic asset. He also underestimated human ingenuity, specifically in terms of technological applications in solving food production and population related problems.
But his warnings still need to be taken seriously. Technology has caused problems for the environment, and population growth in the low-income nations remains very high.
Even if their population growth rate is reduced, any rate of increase in the long-range can be dangerous.
Demographic transition theory has now replaced Malthusian theory and is the thesis that population patterns are linked to a society's level of technological development. Figure 22-5 (p. 549) illustrates four stages of technological change and the related birth and death dates. Stage 1 is represented by....
