Introduction
When asked about the importance of technological change to the future of the health care sector, economists might turn to the markets for answers. Average price earnings ratios in high-tech health sectors are currently about twice as high as those in other industries, indicating that investors believe that health technologies are poised to pay big dividends in the near future.
These beliefs are no doubt fueled by the highly publicized enthusiasm over medical technology in the 21st century. “Health Technology” is a regular feature in the daily news, particularly in the financial press, where a steady stream of featured breakthroughs promises to change the medical landscape, the health of the population, the financial fortunes of one firm or another, and the future cost of health care (Evans, Skrzynia, 2001).
The recent burst of the e-commerce “bubble” should give one pause when considering economic forecasts based on stock market activity. There are, however, good reasons to believe that health expenditures will be significantly influenced by “technological change” in the coming decades. This technological change will consist of innovation and utilization. Innovation is the arrival of new products and techniques; it is the flow of new ideas into the stock of available technology. Utilization concerns how both new and old technologies are used in our health care system; it is what is done with the stock of available technology. In this paper, we argue that both technological innovation and utilization will be driven by the following three overarching influences in the coming ten to twenty years: demographic change, genetic sciences, and consumer-directed marketing. We review expert opinions regarding likely innovation in selected components of the health care sector and relate these trends to the overarching influences of aging, genetics, and marketing.................
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